Designing Randomized Experiments to Predict Unit-Specific Treatment Effects

Typically, a randomized experiment is designed to test a hypothesis about the average treatment effect and sometimes hypotheses about treatment effect variation. The results of such a study may then be used to inform policy and practice for units not in the study. In this paper, we argue that given this use, randomized experiments should instead be designed to predict unit-specific treatment effects in a well-defined population. We then consider how different sampling processes and models affect the bias, variance, and mean squared prediction error of these predictions. The results indicate, for example, that problems of generalizability (differences between samples and populations) can greatly affect bias both in predictive models and in measures of error in these models. We also examine when the average treatment effect estimate outperforms unit-specific treatment effect predictive models and implications of this for planning studies.Comment: 46 pages, 3 figure

Clustered Linear Contextual Bandits with Knapsacks

In this work, we study clustered contextual bandits where rewards and resource consumption are the outcomes of cluster-specific linear models. The arms are divided in clusters, with the cluster memberships being unknown to an algorithm. Pulling an arm in a time period results in a reward and in consumption for each one of multiple resources, and with the total consumption of any resource exceeding a constraint implying the termination of the algorithm. Thus, maximizing the total reward requires learning not only models about the reward and the resource consumption, but also cluster memberships. We provide an algorithm that achieves regret sublinear in the number of time periods, without requiring access to all of the arms. In particular, we show that it suffices to perform clustering only once to a randomly selected subset of the arms. To achieve this result, we provide a sophisticated combination of techniques from the literature of econometrics and of bandits with constraints